Iran deceived and fell flat after more than four decades of authoritarian rule by the clerics who couldn’t see a smarter enemy over their skies. The element of surprise notwithstanding, the regime’s threats and blackmail bluff have been called after the Israeli attack on Iran’s critical defence infrastructure, including ballistic missile launches and nuclear installations.

This followed their success in dismantling the so-called Axis of Resistance led by the mullahs, comprising Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Now that the Israeli Air Force has control of Iranian airspace, PM Benjamin Netanyahu has little incentive in letting go of the advantage. Israeli pilots can strike Tehran at will, at a time, and place of their choosing.

The nuclear threat, however, remains with the reactor at Fordow, that lies deep in the mountains, which would require some help from Israel’s all-weather friend the United States to use bunker-busting bombs to force Iran to capitulate.

One would liken it to the dropping of atom bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which ended World War 2. Iran’s offer of ceasefire will be seen as tactic to buy time which the Israelis will dismiss.

Meanwhile, attacks and counter-strikes continue, which could affect travel plans of NRIs during the summer. The advise is to stay put in the Gulf until the situation resolves, which could redraw the political map of the Middle East and could take time. Whether the regime will go on their own is another another question. It has been clearly rattled, if not battered, with the top military and intelligence leadership dead.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, meanwhile, is working remotely, away from the blitz, with no contact with reality.

The writing is in the sky over Tehran. The situation is tense. It’s a long flight home for Indian expats as the death toll rises and fears of the conflict spreading increase. – editor@nrifocus.com