As the world prepares for a second Trump presidency, all eyes are now on how that will affect immigration. Trump has never shied away from promising to act tough on immigration and his initial few steps indicate so. He has already promised the biggest deportation of migrants in history. Further, the appointment of Tom Homan as the ‘border czar’ in Trump 2.0 promises to see some tough measures being put in place to deal with illegal immigration.

Homan has already said that the northern border with Canada is a priority because illegal migration in the area is a ‘huge national security issue’.

While this is a topic that affects everyone, countries like Mexico and increasingly it seems India, are the ones that are likely to be affected the most. Recent times have seen an increase in Indians illegally migrating into the United States via Canada.

The data bears witness to this trend. Since October 2020, US Customs and Border Protection (CPB) officials have detained nearly 170,000 Indian migrants attempting unauthorised crossings at both the northern and southern land borders. Further, it is estimated that 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants were in the US (as of 2022), making them the third-largest group after those from Mexico and El Salvador. This is according to new data from the Pew Research Center.

This also, of course, raises the question as to why so many Indians are trying to move out. Figures point out that within India, most of the illegal migrants are from the states of Punjab and Gujarat. One obvious factor is the unemployment and under-employment in India. With no jobs, or jobs that pay very little, moving to a country like the US or Canada is a bright option.

According to the India Employment Report 2024, created jointly by the Institute for Human Development and the International Labour Organisation (ILO), India’s working population increased from 61% in 2011 to 64% in 2021, and it is projected to reach 65% in 2036.

However, the percentage of youth involved in economic activities declined to 37% in 2022. This is also a matter of great concern for India, which today has one of the world’s largest youth populations.

Many Indians want to move to countries such as the US, Canada, and Australia, as the conditions in their home states offer little hope. In Punjab, which was at one time one of India’s richest states, unemployment, small farm holdings, and drug menace have all combined to create an atmosphere where moving out seems the only best option. Even in other states, for instance Haryana, the inability of the government to create jobs for the youth is leading to this situation.

A few months ago, thousands of graduate degree holders stood in queues to be interviewed for job vacancies of plumber, construction worker, and similar employment slots, in Israel. The problem in India is also a general denial of how bad the situation is fast becoming.

The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimates that approximately 375,000 (or 3%) of the 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants in the United States as of mid-2022 were from India. This estimation revealed India’s rank as fifth in origin countries — and the top Asian origin — for all unauthorized immigrants in the US. Again, according to MPI, the US was the second largest destination for Indians living abroad, who numbered nearly 18 million as of 2020, the most recent year for which comparative international migration statistics are available.

The top global destination for Indian migrants was the UAE (3.5 million) and the third was Saudi Arabia (2.5 million), according to 2020 United Nations Population Division estimates.

Even as India boasts about being one of the world’s fastest growing economies, lack of jobs and poor salaries within the country loom large. Hence this steady stream of Indians, wanting to migrate, legally and illegally.

A recent World Bank report titled ‘Migrants, Refugees and Societies’ points this out in stark numbers. It says that Indians who migrate abroad experience an average 118% increase in their income levels and that the incomes of low-skilled Indians who migrate to the US increase by 493%.

For India, the real worry should be that there is a large youth population at home who are looking for jobs and a decent standard of living.

The US, in the coming months, is going to be a harder place for immigrants and that is another pointer for Indian policymakers. It will also affect the India-US ties to a good degree.

The jury, however, is still out on whether India can retain its young workforce or ensure their rights as immigrants in a world that is fast closing down on globalisation. – Simran Sodhi is Executive Editor of nrifocus.com