As India begins a fresh political innings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the top post for the third consecutive time, there are a few new elements and some threads of continuity. If relations between two countries were to be considered, it is with the Gulf that India has visibly developed ties and hopes to keep it going as top priority, again.

Since 2014, India’s ties with the nations of the Gulf region, in particular with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Oman, have seen positive transformations. The camaraderie at the top leadership levels has also lent this bond an inherent strength. A quick look at the numbers confirms the UAE today as the seventh largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in India, currently at $15.3 billion. Saudi Arabia had invested $3.2 billion as of March 2022.

As Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, who served as India’s Ambassador to Jordan and Libya points out, “Almost all Gulf countries are our strategic partners as the relationship transcended from simply being transactional during PM Modi’s time. Highest level exchanges and regional and sub-regional engagements like I2U2, IMEC, IUSU and G20, BRICS, SCO, etc., have provided an additional venue of cooperation even as Energy, Expatriates and Economic engagement, along with defence and security collaboration, remain the major plank. Moreover, most of the Gulf countries like India prefer strategic autonomy, which provides another unique platform for the international discourse.”

India recently appointed Kirti Vardhan Singh, as Minister of State, in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). He has been given the charge of the Gulf division within the Ministry. Interestingly, he will also hold concurrent charge of consular, passports and visa work, among others, and also deal with Overseas Indian Affairs. All these areas tie in neatly as being of vast interest in the Gulf because of the presence of a large Indian diaspora in the region. It is estimated that approximately 8.8 million Indian nationals reside in the Gulf region today.

While India and the Gulf nations will likely focus on the economic aspect of their partnership, the one area of concern will be the security situation in the region. Since October 7 last year, with the war in Gaza, the mounting tensions show little signs of any peace soon. For India, the challenge in the coming months will be to strengthen its bilateral ties, even as economic activities increase, with a wary eye on the situation in Gaza.

Ambassador K.P. Fabian, who served as India’s Ambassador to Qatar, said, “The Gulf is important for India as a source of energy and as an important market for exports. That there are about 9 million Indian nationals there adds to the importance of the region. India under Prime Minister Modi has focused more on the UAE and Saudi Arabia. It is better to take care of other countries in the region. We do not know whether there is a holistic plan for advancing India’s interests in the entire region.”

The main thrust of India’s increased co-operation in the Gulf has been the UAE and Saudi Arabia but one hopes that in Modi 3.0, this thrust will also spread to other countries of the Middle East. India also enjoys excellent ties with Qatar, for instance, and Iran, despite the existing challenges with the United States.

It is hoped that in Modi’s third term, one is likely to see the engagement move to a more strategic level. While the transition to an ‘extended neighbourhood’ signifies the diplomatic embrace of India and the Gulf, a move to a more serious partnership will mean shifting focus from just economics to geo-strategic concerns. The next five years could see India and the countries of the Gulf moving closer to each other, ensuring a win-win for all. – Simran Sodhi is Executive Editor of nrifocus.com