A stunning comeback by a former president everyone, it seemed, loved to hate. The pollsters and legacy media got it all wrong. There was no neck-to-neck contest and the Trump wave was indeed red and real. He even won the popular vote. The Republican Party seems all set to control the Senate and of course the White House.

If Trump 1.0 was anything to go by, a second term is likely to be high on drama and the unexpected, which can be both a good and a bad thing. The optimistic scenario is that the consummate ‘outsider’ is back in the Oval Office. Someone who can take a fresh look at conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine-Russia. The pessimistic view is that Trumpism will cause a lot of disruption and chaos.

For many watching the election in India or as a part of the Indian diaspora, Kamala Harris, of half-Indian origin lost badly. In the end, the race ended in a whimper for the Democratic Presidential candidate who has a direct Indian connection. Her mother had moved from India to the US to pursue her studies and later married and settled there. It’s a story that most Indian immigrants can relate to.

On the other end of the political spectrum is Usha Vance, now all set to be the Second Lady, as JD Vance prepares to take oath as the next Vice President of the US. Usha has a similar, relatable story where her parents too migrated to the US and where she has grown up. So, for the Indian diaspora, it’s still a win-win in both scenarios.

But moving away from the optics to the substance of the India-US ties, one needs to look at things more objectively. India-US ties have grown in strength over the last decade or so and that holds true both under Trump 1.0 and later under President Joe Biden. It is also important to note here that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was one of the first to reach out and congratulate Trump on his electoral success. India is also gearing up to welcome Trump when the Quad Summit is hosted by India next year and all four leaders are expected to attend the summit in person.

Trump is expected to pull back from supporting Ukraine. He has never been a fan of America spending money on wars abroad. That was his rationale for withdrawing American forces from Afghanistan too. If Don 2.0 back out of Ukraine, it will wind down the conflict, but with Russia and the Russian President Vladimir Putin emerging stronger.

Again, no surprises here because Trump has never shied away from acknowledging how much he admires Putin. But in this geo-political shift, the winner will also be India. For the last few years, India has had to work hard to maintain good ties with both Russia and the US, despite the Ukraine conflict raging in the background. India can heave a sigh of relief if the Ukraine war winds down under the US new administration.

The real test for India-US ties under Trump 2.0 are likely to be in the areas of trade, tariffs and immigration. Trump has also said that his administration will curtail citizenship by birth, which is likely to impact many Indians who are already in queue for a green card or a permanent residency in the US. There are some who have pointed out that Trump 2.0 will crack down on illegal immigration alone.

However, a closer look at the draft executive order (which is available on the Trump-Vance campaign site) reads: “It will direct federal agencies to require that at least one parent be a US citizen or lawful permanent resident for their future children to become automatic US citizens”.

While a US courts challenge can be expected, it will still be harder for Indians to get US citizenship. In terms of tariffs, there might be an increase on Indian exports that would particularly affect the IT, pharmaceutical, and textile sectors. However, annual bilateral trade between India and the US surpassed $190 billion, making the US India’s largest trade partner.

One factor that could possibly bring India and the US closer is the rise of China. For the US, strengthening relations with India is a message to Beijing. What’s not to be forgotten here is that the Quad essentially remains a grouping which sees China as a threat in the Indo-Pacific region.

All in all, Trump 2.0 promises to be yet another roller -coaster ride. The world is going to watch warily. Will he be unpredictable like the last stint or has he matured at 78? For India, some deft diplomacy is called for but the momentum in ties is unlikely to be disrupted. – Simran Sodhi is Executive Editor of nrifocus.com