Iran’s plan to expand the war to the Gulf countries and Cyprus is a covert attempt to influence the leaders of these nations to bring the US back to the negotiating table, on its terms. Economic gain for military losses is the objective. It has failed so far, for which credit must go to Gulf nations.

The Gulf nations have shown restraint in the face of waves of missile and drone attacks by Tehran, which believes it has nothing to lose after the loss of face following the killing of supreme leader Ali Khamenei in targeted strikes.

The Gulf’s strategic restraint and effective interceptions of missiles and drones could be crucial as the US and Israel go into phase 2 of the bombing campaign to bring what is left of the Iranian leadership to its knees. This could lead to a swift end to the war this week or calls for a ceasefire from Tehran on US terms.

Trump’s endgame, though unclear to the media, is also keeping Tehran’s patchwork leadership guessing. Coupled with the Gulf countries not launching their offensives, it will give a free hand to the US and Israel to finish the job in Tehran with little constraints on firepower.

Regime change may be the ultimate goal, but a moderate leadership is the immediate objective. Who will emerge from the debris of war is the big question. The day after is anybody’s guess. – Image by freepik – editor@nrifocus.com