It is unravelling like a movie plot. India and Canada, in tit-for-tat actions, expelled each other’s diplomats as accusations and counter-accusations fly thick and fast. The genesis of the story is a year old, with Canada accusing India and its agents of being involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, on its soil.

Now, Montreal has upped the ante and gone a step further alleging that India is targeting its dissidents in Canada. What’s interesting is that media reports name one of India’s top minister, a senior government official and Lawrence Bishnoi, a mobster who is currently in jail, as being involved in intimidation, threats and violence. Both countries expelled top diplomats on Monday.

India has, of course, been quick to refute the Canadian allegations. On Monday, New Delhi dismissed Canada’s move on the inquiry and accused Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of pursuing a “political agenda.” New Delhi has earlier accused Canada of pandering to the separatist Sikh movement (Khalistan movement which peaked in India in the 1980s with the Sikhs demanding a separate homeland).

Canada today is home to the largest Sikh population outside India and domestic concerns of course weigh in. But the fact that Canada, at the highest political levels, has chosen to go public with these accusations is a matter of concern for India. Motreal would likely have discussed this with the Five Eyes (an intelligence-sharing agreement between Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) nations before going public.

We can safely say at this point that India-Canada ties have hit rock bottom. What had been simmering for almost a year now seems to have reached a point of no-return. The indignation on both sides is huge. The Canadian police has accused Indian agents of involvement in “homicides, extortion and violent acts” and targeting supporters of the pro-Khalistan movement, which seeks a separate homeland for Sikhs in India. India has been furious in its rejection of these claims and called the allegations as “preposterous”.

The biggest damage here is to India’s image on the global stage. Nijjar’s murder last year led to many accusing the Indian government, helmed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of carrying out a campaign of transnational killings against those it considered to be threats to the state.

Things got worse when last November, the United States also stepped into the picture. US agencies claimed they had thwarted an assassination attempt by an Indian government official to murder Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a firebrand Sikh separatist and dual citizen of the US and Canada.

With both Canada and the US pointing the finger at India publicly, this row has the potential to mar India’s carefully crafted image as an ‘emerging global leader’.

India, under Modi, has flexed its muscle and desire to be recognised as one of the poles in an increasingly multipolar world. Its ties with the US have also grown considerably over the last decade. But these serious charges by Canada have the potential to do cause great harm.

For India, the first step is to prevent the fire from spreading further. The US so far has not been that aggressive in its allegations against India and it is important for India that the US continues to follow this path. With Canada, ties at this point seem damaged beyond repair. It would be unwise on India’s part not to take this spat seriously and to find ways how to mend this with Canada.

There are many hyper-nationalistic voices in India that want this spat to be get uglier. However, India must try to get back to quiet diplomacy, away from the cameras and engage with Canada, the US and other Five Eyes members to explain its position and assert itself.

Another angle is the US Presidential elections which is less than a month away. It’s a close contest and could go either way. But if the Democrats win and Kamala Harris becomes the next President of the US, she will be harder on India on human rights, minority issues and allegations of transnational killings.

It will take a while for the India-Canada row to die down. For New Delhi, the work begins now as it needs to engage wit world powers to convey its position and its concerns about separatist elements operating from foreign soil.

It also has its work cut to overhaul its intelligence gathering networks. Too many slips and too many questions have resulted in global embarrassments.

For an emerging global power and a leader of the Global South, New Delhi cannot be seen as indulging in transnational crimes. – Illustration by freepik – Simran Sodhi is Executive Editor of nrifocus.com