After over a year of the horrific Hamas attacks on Israel, the war clouds in the region have only become worse. Israel and the Middle East nation’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are not for a ceasefire. Worse still, Lebanon and Iran have also become entangled in the conflict.

For India, which has a large Indian diaspora, working and living in the region, this has turned into a diplomatic headache. The reason being India’s cordial ties with all players in this conflict. From one perspective, it is nothing short of a diplomatic achievement for India that it enjoys good relations with Israel, Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Oman, as it does with other countries in the Middle East.

Iran and Israel have always held each other with animosity and for most nations including India, it helped to handle both the countries individually in a manner that suited them. While the relationship with Iran is older and historical, the ties with Israel have warmed up considerably in the past 10 years under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Further, the personal bonhomie that Modi and Netanyahu share has strengthened the bilateral relations.

Even after the terrorist attacks of October 7 by Hamas last year, India walked the middle path, very carefully. While it criticized Hamas for its actions, and supported Israel’s right to self-defense, in the same breath India also supported the Palestinian cause and the two-state solution for peace in the region. On another parallel, India has continued to maintain visits to Iran and its ties with the Islamic nation.

But, as the war deepens and especially with Israel hitting targets in Lebanon, Iran is on the edge and might just get pulled into the conflict. As Iran and Israel get closer to a more or less direct discord, the question is whether India will be able to keep walking this middle path or at some point be forced to take a clearer stand in favor of one over the other.

Following Iran’s missile strike on Israel that has only worsened the crisis in the Middle East, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a statement this October 2 which said, “We are deeply concerned at the escalation of security situation in West Asia and reiterate our call for restraint by all concerned and protection of civilians. It is important that the conflict doesn’t take a wider regional dimension and we urge that all issues be addressed through dialogue and diplomacy.”

India’s MEA also issued a travel advisory, urging Indian citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Iran. “Indian nationals are advised to avoid all non-essential travel to Iran. Those currently residing in Iran are requested to remain vigilant and stay in contact with the Indian Embassy in Tehran,” it said.

For India, the worst-case scenario is an all-out war between Iran and Israel. But with each passing day, the world and all of the Middle East seem to be getting closer to that possibility. India, which has positioned itself as an emerging global player, seeks to be seen as an active player in the region, ideally a peacemaker between warring factions. This is not something India is new to. In the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has had to manoeuvre its position carefully. While Russia is an old friend and a trusted supplier of arms, Ukraine has the backing of the United States and the western world which India has carefully cultivated in the last decade. India has also cleverly positioned itself as a potential host of a Peace Summit in this conflict.

If Israel and Iran do come head-to-head, India might be tempted to take a leaf out of its Russia-Ukraine strategy. It will likely place itself as a potential peacemaker, engaging in talks with both nations. Behind closed doors, of course, the feeling is that India has shifted posts of late and is perceived to be closer to Israel than to Palestine or Iran. But this shift is unlikely to find any mention in the public domain. While trade ties, especially in terms of defense and security will continue to grow with Israel, India is unlikely to give up on the Iranian factor.

This will mean a tight diplomatic walk for India. In all possibilities, India will manage this balancing act. And will likely play the role of a peacemaker that it’s good at. – Illustration by freepik – Simran Sodhi is Executive Editor of nrifocus.com